Analysing COE prices as an exercise in rhetoric, not math
“The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) grants the legal right of the holder to register, own and use a vehicle in Singapore for a period of 10 years.” https://www.sgcharts.com
Before buying a car, Singaporean buyers need to bid for a COE. The number of available COE’s for a particular year is announced in April every year. Each month, one-twelfth of the year’s COE quota is auctioned off. The lowest winning bid is what the buyer eventually pays. (paraphrased from wikipedia)
But COE is more just than auctions, bidding and supply-demand economics. Emotions also play a large part: there is a sense of missed opportunity if one deregisters a vehicle at a loss, there is triumph if one can “catch” a good price in a good year, there is a feeling of satisfaction at finally owning a car. There are other market dynamics at play too — risk and reward, profit and loss, feast and famine. To illuminate these emotional tensions and market conflicts when we analyse COE data, we need to move beyond just presenting the numbers; we need to use rhetorical tools to frame our analysis and draw in our audience. In other words, we need to “evolve” the data “from report to story”.
From report to story
sgcharts.com created a nice visualisation tracking the changing relationship between COE quotas, bids received and final COE prices since 2002.
One technique of turning a graph into a narrative is to map the shape of the visualisation to the shape of a story.
A story is arc-shaped. First, there is a rising action where the audience learns the backstory. For example, COE is how someone buys a car in Singapore. It’s also during the rising action that the audience gets introduced to the story’s central conflict. COE prices fluctuate. These fluctuations creates a risk-reward dynamic — buyers are rewarded if they can act during “feast” years and pay less for a COE, but they also stand to lose out if they buy a car during years when prices are high.
Then comes the points of tension that gather to a climax. In the COE story there are a quite a few of these events. It’s useful to map them all out, but eventually focusing on one can help decide what the final step - the resolution - will look like.
Point of tension 1: 2008 economic crisis. The economy and consumer sentiment sink to new lows.
Climax: 2 SGD COE
Resolution (or softening action): The status quo reasserts itself. Prices begin to climb up to pre-crisis levels.
Point of tension 2: Supply tightening from 2009 onwards with car growth rate halving from 3.0% to 1.5%
Climax: Prices for Cat A cars more than quadruple in just three years, going from 20,501 SGD in 20 Jan 2010 to 91,010 SGD in 23 Jan 2013
Resolution: The status quo again reasserts itself. Prices begin to fall.
As narrative tools, tension points 1 and 2 work when taken individually or as a pair. On their own, they capture the audience’s attention, taking them along an interesting journey along the narrative arc. They are good “inciting incidents” for a more in-depth follow up, for example a discussion on how price during the famine years may have been affected by vehicle emission standards. Taken as a pair, they create an interesting frame around the COE system by drawing out its cyclical “boom and bust” dynamics. One can even make the point that the cycles are drastic enough to consider having a smoothening buffer, which can be yet another entry point into further analysis and discussion.
“Having the data is not enough. I have to show it in ways that people both enjoy and understand” Hans Rosling cofounder of gapminder.org
Story arcs can act as frames around data and numbers, creating an emotional filter with which to persuade, inform and inspire. Use them wisely.
Follow-up:
I wanted to use this post to point out how a reliable rising action — climax — resolution narrative arc can be a compelling way to frame and present an analysis. A friend challenged me on this technique and I realised they had a point. It’s dangerous only knowing this one tool. We can quickly fall into dogmatically putting conflict into every story to drive action. In fact, conflict and tensions are not the only ways to create stories. There’s also surprise, mystery, and twists. This post is my favourite introduction into alternative narrative arcs, but more interestingly I found a point in the COE graph where we can use mystery as a starting point for another analysis! This is a thread of thought that deserves a follow-up post, so stay tuned.
